Arctic sea ice 2026 minimum ties for tenth lowest in the satellite record

Arctic sea ice likely reached its smallest extent of the year on September 12, 2026, covering 4.60 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles), according to an analysis published on September 23 by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The figure ties 2008, 2010 and 2025 for the tenth lowest minimum in the nearly 48-year satellite record.

NASA, which tracks the ice together with NSIDC, reported the same result, noting that the past 20 years have produced the 20 lowest annual Arctic minimums since continuous satellite measurements began in late 1978.

The numbers

According to NSIDC, this year's minimum was 1.21 million square kilometers (467,000 square miles) above the record low of 3.39 million square kilometers, set on September 17, 2012. It was 1.62 million square kilometers (625,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, an area NSIDC compares to the size of Alaska.

If September 12 holds as the low point, the minimum arrived two days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 median date of September 14. NSIDC puts the long-term downward trend in the September minimum at 11.8 percent per decade, or roughly 73,200 square kilometers of ice lost each year.

The center states that "The last 20 years, from 2007 to 2026, are the lowest 20 sea ice extents in the satellite record."

A plateau, but still low

Recent years have shown relative stability in the September extent. Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at NSIDC, summarized the pattern for NASA: "We've plateaued, but we're still low relative to the earlier part of the record."

The record relies on a chain of satellite instruments covering nearly five decades, from NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite, which began observations in October 1978, to the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, launched in 2012, according to the NASA report.

Antarctic ice near record lows

At the other end of the planet, Antarctic sea ice reached its annual maximum on September 14 at 17.59 million square kilometers (6.79 million square miles), the third lowest maximum on record, according to NSIDC. The center said Antarctic ice had been tracking near record low levels for most of the growth season.

NASA reported that Antarctic ice dropped by about 300,000 square kilometers (116,000 square miles) over six days in August, a decline attributed to weather conditions that pushed and compacted thin, mobile ice. Meier said: "Those types of things happen all the time...But the magnitude of it is certainly unusual."

Why it matters

Sea ice extent at the end of the melt season is one of the longest-running and most closely watched indicators of change in the polar regions. This year's result does not set a new record, and scientists describe the recent September numbers as a plateau. But the full satellite record shows the decline has not reversed: every one of the last 20 years ranks among the 20 lowest, and the 2026 minimum sits well below the 1981 to 2010 average. The low Antarctic maximum adds to a run of weak winter ice around that continent.

Sources

This article was drafted with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Company claims are reported as claims. Cover image is AI-generated.